Further, backtesting allows the security selection methodology to be adjusted until past returns are maximized. Since trades have not actually been executed, results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity, and may not reflect the impact that certain economic or market factors may have had on the decision-making process. Specifically, backtested results do not reflect actual trading or the effect of material economic and market factors on the decision-making process. Backtested performance is developed with the benefit of hindsight and has inherent limitations. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. No representations and warranties are made as to the reasonableness of the assumptions. Certain assumptions have been made for modeling purposes and are unlikely to be realized. Changes in these assumptions may have a material impact on the backtested returns presented. General assumptions include: XYZ firm would have been able to purchase the securities recommended by the model and the markets were sufficiently liquid to permit all trading. Backtested results are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. Backtested performance is not an indicator of future actual results. (See SoFi stock forecast)ĭisclaimer: The TipRanks Smart Score performance is based on backtested results. Going by the $7 average price target, investors will be sitting on returns of 18% a year from now. (To watch Smith’s track record, click here)Įlsewhere on the Street, 4 other analysts join Smith on the fence yet with an additional 7 Buys, the analyst consensus views this stock a Moderate Buy. This suggests the shares will stay rangebound for the foreseeable future. So, how does this all translate to investors? Smith remains on the sidelines for now with a Neutral rating and a $6 price target. That said, Smith also notes that leading personal loan originator, Lending Club, offered a more “conservative” stance on its 4Q earnings call and on account of the “rapid change in economic environment,” did not provide annual guidance. Smith notes that despite consumer credit metrics still deteriorating, banks showed “better-than-feared” metrics in 4Q22, with the majority stipulating a “gradual” return to pre-pandemic loss rates, and not the abrupt and immediate increase the market seems to be readying for. Key items for investors to watch include, “(1) FY23 guidance (we are meaningfully below the Street on difficult interest rate hedge compares and the potential for negative fair value adjustments to its loan portfolio) and underlying assumptions, (2) HFS loan book growth and credit trends, and (3) qualitative commentary around personal loan demand and the whole loan sale and ABS (asset-backed securities) funding environments.” That said, anticipating “strong member and deposit growth,” Smith notes that the company has a “track record” of beating Street Rev/ EBITDA estimates. EBITDA of $36 million, below consensus at $43 million. Street expectations of $426 million.Īs per the company’s guidance, Smith expects notional contribution profit and EBITDA to decline a tad sequentially, calling for adj. Morgan’s Reginald Smith expects adjusted revenue to climb 50% year-over-year (Street has 52%) and up “modestly sequentially.” That will bring Q4 revs to $421 million vs. Before Monday’s market action begins, the fintech company will announce fourth quarter and full year 2022 results.ĭriven by a moderate 5% year-over-year drop in loan originations – compared to the Street at a 7% decrease – J.P. The week will kick off with a bang for SoFi Technologies ( NASDAQ:SOFI).
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